Simulating phase transitions and control measures for network epidemics caused by infections with presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages.

We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Viral shedding rate. The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of social distancing being the next critical factor. Individually initiated social isolation was effective when initiated in response to a single infected contact. For each of these control measures, the total number of infections exhibits a sharp phase transition as the strength of the measure is varied.

DGraph Clusters Flaviviruses and ß-Coronaviruses According to Their Hosts, Disease Type, and Human Cell Receptors.

MOTIVATION: There is a need for rapid and easy-to-use, alignment-free methods to cluster large groups of protein sequence data. Commonly used phylogenetic trees based on alignments can be used to visualize only a limited number of protein sequences. DGraph, introduced here, is an application developed to generate 2-dimensional (2D) maps based on similarity scores for sequences. The program automatically calculates and graphically displays property distance (PD) scores based on physico-chemical property (PCP) similarities from an unaligned list of FASTA files. Such "PD-graphs" show the interrelatedness of the sequences, whereby clusters can reveal deeper connectivities. RESULTS: Property distance graphs generated for flavivirus (FV), enterovirus (EV), and coronavirus (CoV) sequences from complete polyproteins or individual proteins are consistent with biological data on vector types, hosts, cellular receptors, and disease phenotypes. Property distance graphs separate the tick- from the mosquito-borne FV, cluster viruses that infect bats, camels, seabirds, and humans separately. The clusters correlate with disease phenotype. The PD method segregates the ß-CoV spike proteins of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) sequences from other human pathogenic CoV, with clustering consistent with cellular receptor usage. The graphs also suggest evolutionary relationships that may be difficult to determine with conventional bootstrapping methods that require postulating an ancestral sequence.